Sunday, December 29, 2013

2014 trend: drones, Internet of tomorrow!

First, drones are cool. Very cool.
And thanks to brands like Parrot, it's fully democratized.
You put a camera on it and you can shoot awesome films, you can control it with your phone or a remonte controller.

Drones are also a good PA:
Countries use it to kill supposedly dangerous people (or people celebrating a wedding) .
It become more interesting. Indeed, the machine will do something that a human should have done before.
BUT the human is still acting, behind his computer screen, like in a video game, he controls the drone with a joystick. His personal assistant, M. drone, just obeys

But here is the coolest part of the article: drones are the new Internet.
Andreas Raptopoulos and his colleagues at Matternet are attempting to create a network of drones that operate like the internet, only for tangible objects.
"The beauty of unmanned autonomous vehicles is [that there’s] no physical infrastructure. UAVs fly wherever there is air." and it's big!
Imagine a world where drones automatically deliver good everywhere.
No need for cargos, trains, trucks and humans to pilot it.
No need for roads, rails, harbor and humans to handle it.
Drones will deliver door to door or to collection points in a fully automated way.
The sky will be full of drones carrying light or heavy things.
Isn't is cool ?

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2014 trend: #Criteo or #Adroll #Retargeting is the new TV commercial. Consumers will reject it. CTR will fall.

Retargeting = displaying ads showing products recently viewed (or related products to the one recently viewed) on other visited websites through ads.
An image from AdRoll describe the process.

Criteo (a French brand, Cocorico) built a huge success on it. Congrats to them!!

I think retargeting success will kill retargeting as it is today. Why?
Because it's too much!!

If you visit an ecommerce website and see a couple of Nike shoes, then, EVERYWHERE, you'll see shoes you've checked and other ones that look like more or less the same.
Whether you buy it or not, whether you checked it for curiosity or really intent to buy, whether it's a present for your wife or your kid who use the same computer as you (argh!!), you'll see EVERYWHERE these ads: on news websites, on Facebook, soon on Twitter, on search engines, etc.

These ads are like TV commercial. They bet on repetition !
Here is the bet: If somebody checked Air Max Nike shoes, we can expect that showing to this person 100 times a day for 10 days the pair of shoes checked or related ones, the guy will finally take his credit card out of its wallet. Very simple.

But, what about the overall the experience?

If you have nobody around you that have one day criticized these retargeting ads I won't believe you.
People feel stressed by all these ads showing the same product. They feel tracked & spied, like in 1984. Indeed, they wonder how it's possible to track their web browsing behavior like that, without any explicit opt-in. They complain of not having a simple way to stop this ad bombing. And, icing on the cake, if they have bought the retargeted product, they think the brand is very stupid to promote a product they have already bought :)
But it works!

Ok it works but...
First question is: for 1 remarketing ad conversion, how many customers feel bad about it and thus trust a lot less the brand using retargeting?
I bet on "A lot" / "Far more than 1"
Second question: when will it collapse? 
When every brand will use it heavily (not just ecommerce websites, but also news websites media websites, mobile apps, etc.) people will just ignore these ads or reject it, finding ways to disable it. Second threat, it's all based on cookies, a technology more and more limited by the legislation.

So is it the end of retargeting?
As it is today, yes.
But I believe that retargeting will gain in maturity and evolve. Here are trends I see:

  • brands will learn to retarget for a shorter time or less heavily (to avoid the feeling to be carpet bombed of the same ads), 
  • they'll let people click on a "do not retarget me I'm searching a present for my wife" or "do not retarget me I don't want my kids to discover what they'll have for Xmas" buttons :) Joke. I mean brands will let people opt-in or opt-out for remarketing as they do for other marketing channels (emails, SMS, etc.)
  • A consequence of the previous point: with a clear opt-in, brands will be able to use all they know about a person to retarget them with very personal offer (and not a extract of their product catalogue). 
  • they'll not retarget loyal consumers
  • they'll not retatget people that have made a purchase on their website
  • they'll ask people feedbacks about retatgeted products after a certain number of ad display (if this product still interest you?)
  • they'll detect if people were about to buy and thus be a good target for retargeting offers OR if people were just browsing the website by curiosity and thus be a good target for more generic ad banners.

I'm sure Criteo or AdRoll will spend R&D time on these needed evolutions!

PS: My POV are my own for those who know where I work.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

2014 trend: Collection points (or point relais) will become the central pillar of BtoC commerce

Deutsch: Logo von

People buy more and more online. Amazon annual income prove it.
People use more and more postal delivery. French post office break record of packs delivered by day: 2M.

I expect that door to door delivery will decrease. 
Too complex to scale for Postal Services. They'll increase its cost, like USPS will do in 2014.
Thus, it will become too expensive for brands to offer the new "norm" of ecommerce: free shipping, within 3 days.
Thus, it will become too expensive for consumers who require a free delivery within 3 days or less.
Thus, it will become normal to arbitrate between a free shipping, not to door and a door to door shipping.
Thus, it will become normal to not receive mail in a mailbox but to catch in a specific place.

I expert that collection points business will increase.
It will because outdated to check mailbox.
Mails et packages will be stored in a collection point.
People will go to that place 1 to 2 times a week.

I expert that collection points will become the next place to be!
Imagin a place poeple visit 1 or 2 times a week to check their mailbox, or take back their purchase. If it's a cool place with cool places to do and buy, it may be a very central place in people's life.

I expert collection points will be like Agora of the Romanians. People will go there, have a good time, make purchases in store or on online devices in the point relais.
It will be a mix between Postal Services, a shop, a "salon" to chat, a cybercafé, etc.

Shops, postal services, bars will fusion because collection point will be the most visited place worldwide.

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2014 trend: Forever editable content

Image representing Wikipedia as depicted in Cr...
Image via CrunchBase
We do not write on paper anymore, we type. Text typed is always editable.
Instead of drafting and drafting again to finally write a cool text. You type raw notes and then polish content till it's perfect. That's just the biggest shift in the way world works today.

The most comprehensive and trusted encyclopedia ever is a wiki, always editable (and wiki are more and more used in companies to collaborate).
The most used social media, Facebook, allow you to edit messages after posting it.Your posts and profiles are always editable (and Twitter declared they'll do the same soon.
Articles on news website are edited all the time .
Offers proposed on brand websites change regarding the profile of the visitor or A/B test strategies, they are edited all the time.
Remarketing ad banners change all the time, they are hyper personalized, always edited.
Prices on Amazon are changed 2.5 millions time a day.
Event the popular email client Gmail allow you to recall an email sent a couple of seconds before to re-edit it.

We live in a world where content is no longer static.
Content: images, videos, texts are always editable.

Ans like content, rules can change all the time, nothing last forever in our days.
Everything is moving, fast!

Two consequences:
- That's the end of inflexible things. Change is possible.Everyday more and more.
- That's a lot of insecurity. Nothing is scheduled. Knowing the every day job you'll do in 10 years, waht will be writter in your Company's wiki or Wikipedia tomorrow is not possible, editing content post on Twitter and Facebook because you changed your minde is possible, seeing a press article edited in real time is possible.
That's out world

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