S&P dégrade la France : Ddécouvrez les raisons invoquées

Finance - Financial injection - Finance
Image by @Doug88888 via Flickr
Intéressant de voir que S&P dégomme la politique d’austérité fiscale (comprendre, les plans de rigueurs) jugée "self-defeating" puis indiquer qu'elle baissera encore la note de la France si le déficit public s’accroît. 

C'est un peu comme si S&P nous condamnait à la croissance keynesienne avec une pincée de fluidification du marché du travail à l'américaine.
S&P veut donc le scénario suivant: 
L'Etat s'endette auprès de la banque centrale qui fait tourner la planche à billet pour doper l'économie (quantitative easing), ça embauche vite (car ça peut virer demain), ça croit (remplissage des caisses de l'Etat=> désendettement), ça prend un peu d'inflation (donc ça se désendette), et tout le monde est content jusqu'à la prochaine bulle (ou jusqu'à ce que la planète tienne plus).

"In our opinion, the political agreement [the last Europeran summit of the 5th december] does not supply sufficient additional resources or operational flexibility to bolster European rescue operations, or extend enough support for those eurozone sovereigns subjected to heightened market pressures.

In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the eurozone's core and the so-called "periphery."

As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers' rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues. 

France's ratings continue to reflect our view of its wealthy, diversified, and resilient economy and its highly skilled and productive labor force. Partially offsetting these strengths, in our view, are France's relatively high general government debt, as well as its labor market rigidities.

The outlook on the long-term rating on France is negative, indicating that we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating further in 2012 or 2013 if:
- Its public finances deviated from the planned budgetary consolidation path. If France's general government deficit were to remain close to current levels, leading to a gradual increase in the net general government debt to surpass 100% of GDP (from just above 80% currently), or if economic growth were to remain weak for an extended period, it could lead to a one-notch downgrade.
- Heightened financing and economic risks in the eurozone were to lead to a significant increase in contingent liabilities, or to a material worsening of external financing conditions. "

Source: S&P
Enhanced by Zemanta

Popular posts from this blog

Linchpin de Seth Godin : Le résumé en 20 points d'un livre à lire impérativement (1/2)

La finance islamique, modèle de bon sens à suivre ?

Tipadvisor: from pretty useless rating to useful tagging and filtering